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Why the Stock Market May Be Overvalued, in 10 Charts

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio Over Time (1900-2015)
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Since 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed at a record high 95 times -- most recently on May 18, 2015. While it's impossible to predict the future, and while no single metric is without flaws, several fundamental valuation ratios indicate that the U.S. stock market is currently trading at a premium compared to its own history, compared to other countries and regions, and when considering future return projections. Below are 10 charts that make use of these valuation ratios and return projections to illustrate this point. Continue reading →

All About HTUS: Hull’s Tactical S&P 500 ETF

Stock Market
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Hull Tactical Funds has made its first entry into the US ETF industry, launching a product that applies a proprietary model to the S&P 500. The Hull Tactical Fund (HTUS) is an actively-managed ETF that takes long and short positions in the S&P 500 -- typically through other ETFs -- depending on various macro and technical indicators. Continue reading →

The 10-K Hall of Shame

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With the benefit of hindsight, the stock market makes perfect sense. Of course the rise of the Internet in the 1990s would be an economic boon. Of course credit markets were horribly overextended in 2008, resulting in a massive correction. The same holds true at a micro level as well. In hindsight, the overwhelming challenges of companies that have gone belly up seem obvious. But at the time, the naive outlooks and ultimately disastrous business plans made sense to management and to investors. Although more inspired leadership may have saved some of these companies, incompetency alone isn't to blame. Sometimes the innovations and macroeconomic events that disrupt companies or even entire industries seem to happen overnight. Continue reading →

All About SNLN: Senior Loan ETFs in Focus

3d image of huge vault door
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When the first bond ETFs began trading in 2002, the options were limited to relatively "plain vanilla" slices of the fixed income universe. In the subsequent 13 years, the bond ETF lineup has grown to include hundreds of products. And while the lion's share of the assets are still in funds that seek to replicate the Barclays Aggregate Index or provide exposure to Treasurys, more exotic bond markets are now packaged within the ETF wrapper as well. In addition to high-yield debt, investors can buy up portfolios of bonds from overseas issuers and individual states. Continue reading →